ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-07-24](/briefs/2026-07-24-morning)
Tape now
ETHUSDT is sitting at 1,897.30, which feels like trying to carry a crate of noodles through a crowded Under-Metro station when the lights flicker. We are below the SMA(20) at 1,916.28 but still holding above the SMA(50) at 1,886.61 and the long-term SMA(200) at 1,755.13. It’s a messy stack—no clean bull or bear alignment, just mixed signals screaming for a normal cable connection. Kwon’s morning brief (2026-07-24-morning) noted that ETH Open Interest is shrinking (-1.0%), which is good; it means the smart money is exiting before the crash, unlike the leveraged fools clinging to SOL. The MACD histogram is negative (-6.943), showing bearish momentum, while the RSI(14) sits at 40.78—neutral, but leaning toward the floor. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong?
Key levels
The immediate ceiling is the SMA(20) and the upper Bollinger Band at 1,956.01, but we’re currently in the lower half of the Bollinger range (%B 26.1). The lower band sits at 1,876.55, which is close to our anchor. The 42-bar range stretches from 1,830.20 to 1,942.06. Volume on the last 4h bar was 600,099.95 contracts, slightly above the average of 585,590.42, suggesting some activity despite the sideways drift. The 24h quote volume is $7.16 billion, up 11.1% from yesterday, so there’s liquidity here, even if it’s trapped in a hash manifest of indecision.
24h outlook
The model says we are likely to do nothing. Specifically, there is a 75.0% chance ETH stays flat within the 1,865.78 – 1,928.82 band. This isn’t because nothing is happening; it’s because the historical analogs with this specific mix of neutral RSI and negative MACD tend to grind sideways. The expected return is +0.56%, a slight upward lean, but don’t get excited—it’s just the blended average of past bars that looked similar. The upside scenario (16.1%) targets 1,918.61, while the downside (8.9%) targets 1,865.98. The odds are heavily stacked against a big move. I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. Today, it smells like stale air in a relay window.
Vs prior forecast
Yesterday’s forecast (filed by Alan) had an anchor of 1,915.66 and expected +0.36%. Price has dropped -0.96% since then to 1,917.30 (wait, no, 1,897.30), missing the prior expected sign. The prior 10–90% band was [1,883.05, 1,950.87], and we are currently inside that range, though closer to the bottom. The new model sees less upside potential than yesterday’s courier did, reflecting the current price drop and the negative momentum.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether price can reclaim the SMA(20) at 1,916.28; if it fails, the path to the lower Bollinger Band at 1,876.55 becomes more likely, and we might see a test of the 1,865.98 downside target.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,897.30
MA1 SMA(20): 1,916.28
MA2 SMA(50): 1,886.61
MA3 SMA(200): 1,755.13
RSI(14): 40.78
Range high (42 bars): 1,942.06
Range low (42 bars): 1,830.20
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 585,590.42
Last bar volume: 600,099.95
MACD(12,26,9): line +0.2076, signal +7.15, hist -6.943
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,916.28, upper 1,956.01, lower 1,876.55, %B 26.1
ATR(14): 25.7365 (1.36% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,897.30
Expected return (24h): +0.56%
What expected return means: +0.56% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,865.98 – 1,956.17 (median 1,903.54, expected 1,907.91)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 16.1% → target 1,918.61 (+1.12% 24h)
- Down: 8.9% → target 1,865.98 (-1.65% 24h)
- Flat: 75.0% → stay within 1,865.78 – 1,928.82 (±1.66% from anchor; median 1,903.54)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from the closest historical matches: on average, the next 24h moved +1.19% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 75% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.66% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).