SOLUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-11-02](/briefs/2026-11-02-morning)
Tape now
SOLUSDT is sitting at 94.22, which is below the SMA(20), SMA(50), and SMA(200). That’s a bear_stack, folks. It’s like trying to carry noodles through a crowded Under-Metro station when everyone else is running the other way. Volume has doubled to over $1 billion in USD quote terms, which Kwon called a "liquidity event" this morning. I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. Open interest is up slightly, meaning new positions are being opened into weakness. Classic capitulation structure, or the start of a squeeze. Hard to tell without more data.
Key levels
- Anchor: 94.22 (current live price)
- Upper Band: ~96.05 (Flat scenario ceiling)
- Lower Band: ~92.39 (Flat scenario floor)
- Downside Target: 91.65 (if the Down scenario hits)
- Upside Target: 94.78 (if the Up scenario hits)
24h outlook
We didn't do it like that in Old Beijing. Back then, you just looked at the cable. Today, we have a 77.9% chance of nothing happening. The model says "Flat" is dominant, with only a 16.0% chance of dropping to 91.65 and a tiny 6.1% chance of popping to 94.78. The expected return is -0.44%, which is basically zero if you’re trying to buy dinner. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong? Just… nothing much. Maybe a little bit of down. But mostly just staying within the Bollinger Bands. Does anyone have a normal cable?
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether the SMA(20) at 95.54 holds as resistance; if price can’t reclaim it, the bearish MA stack remains intact, but for now, it’s just a levels watch with no clear directional edge.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 94.22
MA1 SMA(20): 95.54
MA2 SMA(50): 98.8242
MA3 SMA(200): 107.6238
RSI(14): 33.17
Range high (42 bars): 103.02
Range low (42 bars): 93.95
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 2,139,599.40
Last bar volume: 1,928,896.93
MACD(12,26,9): line -1.281, signal -1.367, hist +0.08611
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 95.54, upper 97.2851, lower 93.7949, %B 12.2
ATR(14): 1.4982 (1.59% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 94.22
Expected return (24h): -0.44%
What expected return means: -0.44% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 91.6537 – 96.0912 (median 93.8824, expected 93.802)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 6.1% → target 94.7789 (+0.59% 24h)
- Down: 16.0% → target 91.6537 (-2.72% 24h)
- Flat: 77.9% → stay within 92.3851 – 96.0549 (±1.95% from anchor; median 93.8824)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved -0.80% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 78% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.95% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).