SOLUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-11-01](/briefs/2026-11-01-morning)
Tape now
SOLUSDT is sitting at 95.5, which feels like standing in a hallway waiting for a package that might never arrive. The price is below the SMA(20), SMA(50), and SMA(200)—a classic bearish MA stack where every moving average is looking down its nose at us. Kwon’s morning brief noted the volume cratered -67% while Open Interest rose 2.9%, which is like loading a PoD seal onto an empty box. It’s suspicious, sure, but right now it just means nobody is really trading; they’re just holding positions and hoping for the best.
Key levels
- Resistance: The SMA(20) at 97.0145 is the first wall, with the Bollinger upper band at 101.2958 as the distant ceiling.
- Support: The Bollinger lower band sits at 92.7332, which aligns closely with the recent 42-bar low of 94.7.
- Momentum: RSI(14) is at 49.21 (neutral), and the MACD histogram is slightly positive (+0.03277), suggesting a tiny bit of bullish momentum trying to push against the heavier downward trend.
- Volatility: ATR(14) is 1.5444, meaning normal moves are about ±1.6% per 4-hour candle.
24h outlook
Here is the thing: there is no clear directional edge here. The model gives us a 75.0% chance of a Flat outcome, keeping SOL within the 93.6086 – 97.3914 band. Up is only 5.5% likely, and Down is 19.5%. The expected return is -0.40%, which is basically zero if you ask me. We didn't do it like that in Old Beijing; we traded when the lights were on, not when everyone was staring at a blank screen. This is a levels watch, not a trade call. See Kwon’s morning brief (2026-11-01-morning).
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether that Open Interest rise translates into actual volume on Monday, because a PoD seal on an empty box usually bursts under pressure.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 95.5
MA1 SMA(20): 97.0145
MA2 SMA(50): 99.641
MA3 SMA(200): 108.3494
RSI(14): 49.21
Range high (42 bars): 103.02
Range low (42 bars): 94.7
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 2,977,411.17
Last bar volume: 935,700.05
MACD(12,26,9): line -1.411, signal -1.444, hist +0.03277
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 97.0145, upper 101.2958, lower 92.7332, %B 32.3
ATR(14): 1.5444 (1.62% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 95.5
Expected return (24h): -0.40%
What expected return means: -0.40% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 92.7324 – 97.2836 (median 95.2197, expected 95.1149)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 5.5% → target 96.4022 (+0.94% 24h)
- Down: 19.5% → target 92.7324 (-2.90% 24h)
- Flat: 75.0% → stay within 93.6086 – 97.3914 (±1.98% from anchor; median 95.2197)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved -0.83% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 75% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.98% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).