ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-01](/briefs/2026-08-01-morning)
Tape now
EXCELLENT! We are looking at ETHUSDT, and honestly, it smells like noodles or a crime. Price is sitting at 1,868.93, which is below the short-term SMA(20) at 1,896.03 and the SMA(50) at 1,896.27, but thankfully it’s still above the long-term SMA(200) at 1,816.96. It’s a mixed bag, like a hash manifest with half the seals missing. Kwon noted the funding ticked up despite the price drop—that’s a divergence worth noting, a classic "desperate longers trying to catch a falling knife" moment. The RSI is at 32.46, which is neutral but leaning toward the cold side, and the MACD histogram is negative, suggesting bearish momentum that feels like a threadbare hull dragging through water.
Key levels
The range high over the last 42 bars is 1,963.58, and the low is 1,857.05. We are currently hovering near the lower end of that box, just above the Bollinger Band lower at 1,853.73. The ATR is around 24.34, meaning the market has about 1.3% of wiggle room per move. If we break below the recent low, it’s going to be messy. If we climb back above 1,896, we might see some relief, but right now, the tape is quiet, with last bar volume at 110,473 contracts against an average of 601,842. That’s not fair! Where did the volume go?
24h outlook
We didn't do it like that in Old Beijing; usually, when volume drops this much, something big is about to happen. But here, the model says we’re likely to stay put. The dominant scenario is Flat (56.9%), keeping us between 1,839.12 and 1,898.74. There’s a 32.4% chance we go Up to 1,906.69, driven by historical analogs that leaned positive, and only a 10.7% chance we crash Down to 1,834.83. The expected return is +0.83%, which is a slight upward lean on balance, but don’t get excited—it’s illustrative only in spirit, even if the confidence is normal. See Kwon’s morning brief (2026-08-01-morning) for the context on why funding is acting weird.
Vs prior forecast
Yesterday’s forecast from Eric had an anchor at 1,885.83 and expected a +0.77% move. Since then, price dropped -0.90% to our current 1,868.93. We are still inside the prior forward band of [1,856.35, 1,941.71], but we missed the direction. The model has adjusted slightly, now expecting +0.83% over the next 24h, but the reality is we’re lagging behind the previous expectation.
Watchlist note
I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. Watch the 1,857 support level closely because if it breaks, the "flat" scenario collapses into a down trend, and I’d rather deliver a crate of honest unfairness than chase a falling knife.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,868.93
MA1 SMA(20): 1,896.03
MA2 SMA(50): 1,896.27
MA3 SMA(200): 1,816.96
RSI(14): 32.46
Range high (42 bars): 1,963.58
Range low (42 bars): 1,857.05
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 601,842.08
Last bar volume: 110,473.51
MACD(12,26,9): line -10.13, signal -5.167, hist -4.967
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,896.03, upper 1,938.36, lower 1,853.71, %B 18.0
ATR(14): 24.3423 (1.30% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,868.93
Expected return (24h): +0.83%
What expected return means: +0.83% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,834.83 – 1,934.97 (median 1,882.61, expected 1,884.48)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 32.4% → target 1,906.69 (+2.02% 24h)
- Down: 10.7% → target 1,834.83 (-1.82% 24h)
- Flat: 56.9% → stay within 1,839.12 – 1,898.74 (±1.60% from anchor; median 1,882.61)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from the closest historical matches: on average, the next 24h moved +1.59% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 57% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.60% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).