ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-07-08](/briefs/2026-07-08-morning)
Tape now
ETHUSDT is sitting at 1,750.49, which feels like trying to carry a crate of noodles through a crowded Under-Metro station without spilling a drop. We are below the SMA(20) at 1,774.77 but holding above the SMA(50) and SMA(200), so the hull is intact but the direction is confused. Kwon noted that everyone is too scared to bet, and looking at the shrinking volume (-28.9% day-over-day), I believe him. It’s quiet. Too quiet. I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. In this case, it’s just boredom. The MACD histogram is negative, suggesting bearish momentum, but the RSI is neutral, so nothing is screaming for attention.
Key levels
- Resistance: The SMA(20) at 1,774.77 and the Bollinger upper band at 1,802.63 act as the ceiling; breaking through requires more than just hope.
- Support: The Bollinger lower band at 1,746.91 is the immediate floor, with the SMA(50) at 1,711.59 providing deeper structural support.
- Range: The 42-bar range spans from 1,569.02 to 1,798.84, meaning we are currently in the middle of the box, nowhere near the edges.
- Volatility: ATR(14) is at 30.64, indicating that normal moves are about 1.75% of price—small steps, not leaps.
24h outlook
The model says there is no clear directional edge here, which is exactly what I expected from a market where Open Interest is dropping and funding rates are near zero. We have a 72.7% chance of staying flat within 1,712.96 – 1,788.02, a 14.1% chance of drifting up to 1,778.58, and only a 13.2% chance of falling to 1,710.07. The expected return is +0.28%, which is basically rounding error. This isn’t a trade call; it’s a levels watch. Does anyone have a normal cable? Because this signal is full of static. See Kwon’s morning brief (2026-07-08-morning).
Watchlist note
I will keep an eye on whether price can reclaim the SMA(20) at 1,774.77, as that would be the first sign that the "noodles" aren't actually a "crime."
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,750.49
MA1 SMA(20): 1,774.77
MA2 SMA(50): 1,711.59
MA3 SMA(200): 1,677.88
RSI(14): 39.68
Range high (42 bars): 1,798.84
Range low (42 bars): 1,569.02
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 691,667.71
Last bar volume: 324,852.76
MACD(12,26,9): line +11.95, signal +20.07, hist -8.123
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,774.77, upper 1,802.63, lower 1,746.91, %B 6.4
ATR(14): 30.6449 (1.75% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,750.49
Expected return (24h): +0.28%
What expected return means: +0.28% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,710.07 – 1,798.68 (median 1,749.28, expected 1,755.46)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 14.1% → target 1,778.58 (+1.60% 24h)
- Down: 13.2% → target 1,710.07 (-2.31% 24h)
- Flat: 72.7% → stay within 1,712.96 – 1,788.02 (±2.14% from anchor; median 1,749.28)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved +0.55% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 73% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±2.14% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).