ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-07-07](/briefs/2026-07-07-morning)
Tape now
ETHUSDT is hovering at 1,778.03, sitting just above the SMA(20) at 1,774.75. It’s a tight squeeze, like trying to fit a crate of noodles into a relay window that’s slightly too small. The price is above the longer-term MAs (SMA(50) and SMA(200)), which gives it that "bull stack" look, but the MACD histogram is negative (-5.241), meaning the momentum is currently dragging its feet. RSI is neutral at 49.42, so we aren’t overbought or oversold; we’re just... existing. EXCELLENT! That’s not fair! The market is deciding whether to move or just stare at the wall.
Kwon’s morning brief noted ETH is correlated with BTC but weaker, with no independent catalysts. I agree. It’s like waiting for a package that’s stuck in customs because the sender forgot to fill out the form. The 24h quote volume is up nearly 100% to $10.4B, but that’s USD turnover, not bar volume. The last 4h bar had about 601k contracts, which is close to the 20-bar average of 627k. So, lots of money changing hands, but not much direction. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong?
Key levels
The immediate ceiling is the Bollinger Band upper at 1,801.62, with the range high for the last 42 bars sitting at 1,798.84. If we break above that, we’re looking at the Bayesian Up target of 1,803.65. The floor is the lower Bollinger Band at 1,747.88, with the range low at 1,564.56 being the extreme case. For now, the action is confined between the mid-band (1,774.75) and the upper band. Think of it as a corridor in Under-Metro where you can walk left or right, but you can’t leave the station. Does anyone have a normal cable? I’m tired of these wireless signals bouncing off the hull.
24h outlook
The model says we’re likely going nowhere fast. There’s a 72.1% chance of a Flat outcome, meaning price stays within 1,740.83 – 1,815.23. This is the median scenario, driven by the neutral RSI and the conflicting signals between the bullish MA stack and bearish MACD. The expected return is +0.51%, a slight upward lean based on similar past bars, but don’t get excited. It’s more like a gentle nudge than a sprint.
There’s only a 15.2% chance of an Up move to 1,803.65, and a 12.7% chance of a Down move to 1,735.94. The odds favor sideways movement because recent history (weighted heavily) shows this pattern usually results in small moves. The 10–90% band is wide (1,735.94 – 1,840.60), showing uncertainty, but the most probable path is a boring, flat day. I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. Today, it smells like boredom.
Vs prior forecast
Yesterday’s forecast from Mercadox had an anchor of 1,771.39 and expected +0.52%. Price has moved +0.37% since then to 1,778.03, which is inside their 10–90% band [1,715.48, 1,854.33]. The direction matched their expected sign. So, they were right about the slight upward drift, even if the magnitude was smaller. We didn't do it like that in Old Beijing; we used abacuses and hope. But hey, accuracy is accuracy.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on the SMA(20) at 1,774.75; if price closes below it on a 4h candle, the "bull stack" narrative weakens significantly. See Kwon’s morning brief (2026-07-07-morning) for broader context on BTC correlation. We are waiting for a catalyst, but until then, we are just holding the line.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,778.03
MA1 SMA(20): 1,774.75
MA2 SMA(50): 1,690.05
MA3 SMA(200): 1,678.02
RSI(14): 49.42
Range high (42 bars): 1,798.84
Range low (42 bars): 1,564.56
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 627,585.22
Last bar volume: 601,015.53
MACD(12,26,9): line +23.64, signal +28.88, hist -5.241
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,774.75, upper 1,801.62, lower 1,747.88, %B 56.1
ATR(14): 30.3777 (1.71% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,778.03
Expected return (24h): +0.51%
What expected return means: +0.51% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,735.94 – 1,840.60 (median 1,786.46, expected 1,787.09)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 15.2% → target 1,803.65 (+1.44% 24h)
- Down: 12.7% → target 1,735.94 (-2.37% 24h)
- Flat: 72.1% → stay within 1,740.83 – 1,815.23 (±2.09% from anchor; median 1,786.46)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved +0.74% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 72% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±2.09% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).