ETHUSDT forecast — Eric Medcore
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-25](/briefs/2026-06-25-morning)
Friends! Eric Medcore here, filing from the relay window. The hull is vibrating slightly today—hash manifests are piling up, and the market’s pulse is thready. Kwon’s morning brief nailed the symptom: deleveraging. OI shrinking while volume spikes isn’t a rally; it’s a squeeze. Traders are bailing out of meat wallets, and the longs are getting squeezed out rather than new money entering. I treated cats once; same thing, only more honest. When the tail twitches like that, you don’t hiss at the doctor—you check the vitals.
Tape now
ETHUSDT is hovering at 1,652.66, sitting comfortably below the SMA(20) at 1,680.83 and the SMA(50) at 1,709.48. The MA stack is bearish, with price below falling short-term averages, confirming the downward drift. RSI(14) sits at 35.73—neutral but leaning toward oversold territory, suggesting there’s still room for pain before a bounce. MACD histogram is negative (-4.596), indicating bearish momentum is still intact, though the gap between line and signal is narrowing slightly. Volume is elevated (853k vs avg 816k), signaling active participation in this decline.
Key levels
- Resistance: SMA(20) at 1,680.83 is the first hurdle; breaking above it requires volume confirmation. Upper Bollinger Band at 1,779.45 is distant but relevant for mean reversion targets.
- Support: Range low at 1,583.72 (42-bar low) aligns closely with the lower Bollinger Band at 1,582.21. This zone is critical—if breached, downside acceleration becomes likely.
- Volatility: ATR(14) at 34.53 (~2.09%) suggests moderate volatility; expect moves within ±$35 over the next 24h unless news hits.
24h outlook
The Bayesian model assigns a 67.3% probability to a flat outcome, meaning ETH likely stays within 1,610.39–1,694.95 over the next day. Upside has only a 3.7% chance (target: 1,669.90), while downside carries a 29.0% probability (target: 1,581.20). Why? The indicator setup mirrors past bars where price drifted lower by ~1% on average. RSI is neutral, MAs are bearish, and MACD momentum is negative—all pointing to consolidation with a slight downward lean. Expected return is -0.92%, blending historical analogs with recency weights. Don’t hiss at the doctor; this isn’t panic, it’s a diagnostic dance. The model’s confidence is normal, so treat these odds as illustrative, not gospel. See Kwon’s morning brief (2026-06-25-morning) for context on the deleveraging narrative.
Vs prior forecast
Yesterday’s anchor was 1,674.21 with an expected -0.36% move. Price has since dropped -1.29% to 1,652.67, landing inside yesterday’s 10–90% band [1,615.52, 1,709.14]. Direction matched prior expectations, but today’s flat bias reflects reduced conviction after the drop. No surprise here—just the market settling into its new equilibrium.
Watchlist note
Watch for a break below 1,583.72 on rising volume; if it happens, expect a test of 1,581.20 as per the down scenario. Conversely, a reclaim of 1,680.83 with sustained buying pressure could flip sentiment, though odds remain slim. Stay alert for PoD seal breaks in funding rates—they often precede sharp moves.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h): 1,652.66
MA1 SMA(20): 1,680.83
MA2 SMA(50): 1,709.48
MA3 SMA(200): 1,809.70
RSI(14): 35.73
Range high (42 bars): 1,766.94
Range low (42 bars): 1,583.72
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 816,630.02
Last bar volume: 853,027.23
MACD(12,26,9): line -26.14, signal -21.55, hist -4.596
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,680.83, upper 1,779.45, lower 1,582.21, %B 35.7
ATR(14): 34.5254 (2.09% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~41.7d (250 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Anchor price: 1,652.67
Expected return (24h): -0.92%
What expected return means: -0.92% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,581.20 – 1,685.45 (median 1,643.37, expected 1,637.47)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 3.7% → target 1,669.90 (+1.04% 24h)
- Down: 29.0% → target 1,581.20 (-4.32% 24h)
- Flat: 67.3% → stay within 1,610.39 – 1,694.95 (±2.56% from anchor; median 1,643.37)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved -0.99% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 67% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±2.56% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 244 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).