ETHUSDT forecast — Alan Mesk · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-09](/briefs/2026-08-09-morning)
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ETHUSDT prints 1,917.21 on the 4h, +0.15% on the day — a meat-wallet shuffle, not a breakout. Price sits above all three moving averages (SMA(20) 1,911.80, SMA(50) 1,885.29, SMA(200) 1,864.82), which is a bullish stack, but MACD(12,26,9) histogram is negative at -0.9295 and RSI(14) sits neutral at 61.70. 24h quote volume collapsed 69.8% day-over-day to $1.48B — the relay window is quiet. Kwon called it incremental accumulation, nothing to chase ((see 2026-08-09-morning)); the hash manifest agrees. Theoretically safe.
Key levels
- Overhead: Range high (42 bars) 1,921.85; Bollinger upper 1,926.25.
- Nearest support: SMA(20) at 1,911.80; Bollinger lower 1,897.35.
- Range low (42 bars): 1,838.97 — the floor if momentum rolls over.
- ATR(14): 15.08 (0.79%
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,917.21
MA1 SMA(20): 1,911.80
MA2 SMA(50): 1,885.29
MA3 SMA(200): 1,864.82
RSI(14): 61.70
Range high (42 bars): 1,921.85
Range low (42 bars): 1,838.97
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 326,155.36
Last bar volume: 101,993.82
MACD(12,26,9): line +8.561, signal +9.491, hist -0.9295
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,911.80, upper 1,926.25, lower 1,897.35, %B 68.7
ATR(14): 15.0808 (0.79% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,917.21
Expected return (24h): +0.23%
What expected return means: +0.23% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,880.43 – 1,982.40 (median 1,919.47, expected 1,921.62)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 23.8% → target 1,932.76 (+0.81% 24h)
- Down: 24.4% → target 1,880.43 (-1.92% 24h)
- Flat: 51.9% → stay within 1,898.74 – 1,935.68 (±0.96% from anchor; median 1,919.47)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (0%), closest analogs (44%), and recency (56%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved +0.30% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 52% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±0.96% of the anchor price over 24h.
- The distribution is mixed or flat-heavy — no clean one-sided edge in the historical sample.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).