From power laws to AI networks, why complex Bitcoin price models memorize market noise

- Bitcoin price forecasting, the sacred scam of our industry, just got peer-reviewed into paste. Carlos Baquero's preprint checked the actual literature and found exactly zero models — power laws, on-chain voodoo, LSTM sorcery, all of it — that beat "the price is what it is today" over one-to-six-month horizons. That's right: your favorite chart guru loses to a coin flip wearing a lab coat. Meanwhile Puoti and friends tested 12 fancy methods against naive benchmarks and the naive models won. Twelve. Apparently these overfit backtests are just unsealed cargo — looks impressive on the manifest, holds nothing inside. Every "flawless model" was tuned on the same 2018 bear market a million times and then sold as prophecy. Where's my cut? Not from these forecasts, that's for sure. If anyone tells you their AI sees six months ahead, ask how many losing variants they quietly spaced out the relay window. Real edge exists at short horizons; everything else is memorized noise with a marketing budget. Trust the PoD seal, not the power law.