SOLUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-11-06](/briefs/2026-11-06-morning)
Tape now
SOLUSDT is sitting at 89.59, which feels less like a price and more like a crate of noodles that’s been left in the sun for three days. We are firmly below the SMA(20) at 92.913, the SMA(50) at 94.7618, and way down from the SMA(200) at 104.4853. It’s a bearish MA stack, which is just fancy talk for "everything is falling down." The RSI is neutral at 42.03, so we aren’t crashing through the floor yet, but the MACD histogram is negative (-0.4422), meaning the momentum is sliding downhill. Kwon mentioned funding compression suggests shorts might be closing, but honestly? I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. Right now, it smells like a slow bleed.
Key levels
The market is currently playing hide-and-seek in a very small box. Here is where the action is likely to happen, based on the Bayesian model:
- Up Zone (Above 92.2158): If we somehow punch above this level, the median target is 92.3951. This would be a +3.13% move. It’s possible, but only with a 7.1% probability. That’s like finding a normal cable in Old Beijing—rare and suspicious.
- Flat Zone (86.9642 – 92.2158): This is the big one. There is an 81.3% chance we stay here. The median outcome is 89.2605, which is basically exactly where we are now (-0.37%). This is the expected return: -0.56%. It means if you hold this, you’re probably just watching paint dry while slowly losing a few cents.
- Down Zone (Below 86.9642): If the support breaks, we drop to a median of 84.9886 (-5.14%). This has an 11.6% probability. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s heavier than the upside because recent history leans negative.
24h outlook
We didn't do it like that in Old Beijing; back then, if something was broken, you kicked it until it worked. Today, we have an 81% chance of doing nothing. The model says the strongest pull comes from recent bars, which have averaged a -0.86% move over the last 24 hours. The expected return is -0.56%, a slight downward lean on balance. It’s not a crash, but it’s not a rally either. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong? Well, everything is below every moving average, so gravity is still in effect. The signal mode is dominant scenario flat, so don’t expect fireworks. Just expect a lot of sideways friction.
Vs prior forecast
Kwon’s morning brief (2026-11-06-morning) noted that funding compression might spark a risky bounce, but the numbers tell a different story. Our prior forecast from yesterday anchored at 95.91 with an expected -1.90% drop. Since then, price has fallen 6.59% to 89.59. Crucially, we are now below the prior forward band’s lower bound (91.0227). The direction matched the prior expectation of a drop, but the magnitude was steeper than the model predicted. We’ve already done the hard part of falling; now we’re just trying to find a place to sit.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether the price can reclaim the 92.2158 level, as failing to do so confirms the flat/down bias, while holding above 86.9642 keeps us in the current range-bound misery without further damage.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 89.59
MA1 SMA(20): 92.913
MA2 SMA(50): 94.7618
MA3 SMA(200): 104.4853
RSI(14): 42.03
Range high (42 bars): 96.69
Range low (42 bars): 89.3
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 3,215,955.52
Last bar volume: 1,940,893.29
MACD(12,26,9): line -1.212, signal -0.7697, hist -0.4422
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 92.913, upper 97.6529, lower 88.1731, %B 14.9
ATR(14): 2.144 (2.39% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 89.59
Expected return (24h): -0.56%
What expected return means: -0.56% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
24h scenarios — three price zones (probabilities sum to 100%):
- Up: 7.1% → above 92.2158; median if it plays out 92.3951 (+3.13% 24h)
- Flat: 81.3% → 86.9642 – 92.2158 (±2.93% from anchor); median if it plays out 89.2605 (-0.37% 24h)
- Down: 11.6% → below 86.9642; median if it plays out 84.9886 (-5.14% 24h)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bearish MA stack (price below falling SMA(20) < SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved -0.86% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 81% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±2.93% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).