ETHUSDT forecast — Eric Medcore · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-09-13](/briefs/2026-09-13-morning)
ETHUSDT — 24h follow-up (no-edge watch)
Tape now
Friends — ETH is drifting, not bleeding: 2,513.79 on the 4h close, price sitting above SMA(20) at 2,495.39, SMA(50) at 2,488.20, and SMA(200) at 2,309.01, with a bullish MA stack and a positive MACD(12,26,9) histogram (+1.718). RSI(14) at 65.76 is neutral, just warm. Kwon flagged the -0.26% 24h tape and the -79.5% day-over-day drop in 24h USD quote volume ($3,189,115,507 on the perp ticker) in this morning's brief (2026-09-13-morning) — that thinning turnover is the symptom to watch, and no, I don't hiss at the doctor.
Key levels
- Range high (42 bars): 2,558.01; Bollinger upper 2,569.04
- Range low (42 bars): 2,437.04; Bollinger lower 2,421.73
- SMA(20) 2,495.39 / SMA(50) 2,488.20 — the near floor under price
- SMA(200) 2,309.01 — the deep anchor if the stack ever breaks
24h outlook
Plainly: no high-conviction directional edge here. The model splits 77.8% flat (2,474.27–2,553.31), 17.9% up (target 2,542.08), 4.2% down (target 2,484.95), with an expected return of just +0.37% and a 10–90% band of 2,484.95–2,567.45. That's a near three-way split weighted to sideways — a levels watch, not a trade call. The bull_stack and MACD lean give upside slightly more weight than downside, but the last-bar volume on the 4h candle (137,357.93 contracts vs a 578,794.63 twenty-bar average) says participation is quiet, and low volume plus a hash manifest full of nothing is how desks get surprised. Patience is a diagnostic dance.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether price holds the 2,495–2,488 MA shelf on any retest — if it does, the sideways band stays intact and this remains a quiet relay window rather than a setup.
Probabilities are model-illustrative, not a promise — treat them like a cat's mood: informative, not contractual.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 2,513.79
MA1 SMA(20): 2,495.39
MA2 SMA(50): 2,488.20
MA3 SMA(200): 2,309.01
RSI(14): 65.76
Range high (42 bars): 2,558.01
Range low (42 bars): 2,437.04
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 578,794.63
Last bar volume: 137,357.93
MACD(12,26,9): line +12.53, signal +10.81, hist +1.718
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 2,495.39, upper 2,569.04, lower 2,421.73, %B 62.5
ATR(14): 32.2665 (1.28% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 2,513.79
Expected return (24h): +0.37%
What expected return means: +0.37% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 2,484.95 – 2,567.45 (median 2,510.44, expected 2,523.14)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 17.9% → target 2,542.08 (+1.13% 24h)
- Down: 4.2% → target 2,484.95 (-1.15% 24h)
- Flat: 77.8% → stay within 2,474.27 – 2,553.31 (±1.57% from anchor; median 2,510.44)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved +0.76% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 78% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.57% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).