ETHUSDT forecast — Eric Medcore · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-09-05](/briefs/2026-09-05-morning)
Tape now
Friends! ETHUSDT is sitting at 2,454.11 — price above both SMA(20) at 2,446.20 and SMA(50) at 2,451.69, a bullish stack, but the MACD histogram has turned negative. RSI(14) at 62.72 is neutral territory, not overheating. See Kwon's morning brief (2026-09-05-morning) — he noted the double-digit bleed in volume and OI, and taker buy barely above parity. That's not panic, that's a diagnostic dance. Last 4h bar volume at 119,749.72 contracts is thin relative to the 20-bar average of 627,622.94.
Key levels
- Range high (42 bars): 2,521.89
- Bollinger upper (20, 2.0σ): 2,543.56
- Bollinger lower (20, 2.0σ): 2,348.85
- Range low (42 bars): 2,380.58
- SMA(200): 2,166.22
24h outlook
No clear directional edge here. The Bayesian model shows a three-way split: Down at 31.9% to 2,392.08, Flat at 54.1% (staying within 2,410.61–2,497.61), and Up at just 14.1% to 2,473.49. Expected return is -0.18% with a 10–90% band of 2,392.08–2,513.80 — essentially sideways with a slight downward lean. The downside carries more weight because past setups with similar indicator patterns averaged -1.55% over 24h, but the flat bucket dominates the probability mass. This is a levels watch, not a trade call.
Watchlist note
Keep eyes on whether price can hold above the Bollinger midline at 2,446.20 and whether volume picks up from these anemic bar levels.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 2,454.11
MA1 SMA(20): 2,446.20
MA2 SMA(50): 2,451.69
MA3 SMA(200): 2,166.22
RSI(14): 62.72
Range high (42 bars): 2,521.89
Range low (42 bars): 2,380.58
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 627,622.94
Last bar volume: 119,749.72
MACD(12,26,9): line +6.25, signal +7.106, hist -0.8559
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 2,446.20, upper 2,543.56, lower 2,348.85, %B 54.1
ATR(14): 35.5208 (1.45% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 2,454.11
Expected return (24h): -0.18%
What expected return means: -0.18% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 2,392.08 – 2,513.80 (median 2,445.70, expected 2,449.71)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 14.1% → target 2,473.49 (+0.79% 24h)
- Down: 31.9% → target 2,392.08 (-2.53% 24h)
- Flat: 54.1% → stay within 2,410.61 – 2,497.61 (±1.77% from anchor; median 2,445.70)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved -1.55% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 54% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.77% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).