SOLUSDT forecast — Zhao Ledger
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-30](/briefs/2026-08-30-morning)
SOLUSDT 24h Forecast — 2026-08-30
Tape now
SOLUSDT closed the last 4h bar at 105.01, sitting just a hair below the SMA(20) at 105.026 but holding above the SMA(50) and SMA(200). RSI(14) is oversold at 29.21, MACD histogram is negative at -0.3978, and the MA stack is mixed — no clean trend stack on the hash manifest. Last bar volume ran 1,086,886.11 contracts against a 20-bar average of 4,539,520.43, while 24h quote volume clocked $1,157,199,604, down 65.3% day-over-day. OI shed 2.1% and funding slipped 0.19 bps — conviction evaporating faster than Chrome Syndicate debt. See Kwon's morning brief (2026-08-30-morning).
Key levels
Bollinger bands frame the immediate range: mid at 105.026, upper at 109.0757, lower at 100.9763. The 42-bar range spans 93.66 to 109.33. ATR(14) reads 2.0783 (1.98% of price). Price is below the SMA(20) but above both the SMA(50) at 99.7502 and SMA(200) at 81.9586 — mixed alignment, not a clean bull stack. Not on the manifest if you're calling this a trend.
24h outlook
The Bayesian model assigns 63.4% probability to flat (sideways within 102.4646 – 107.5554), 30.1% to up (target 108.5028), and 6.6% to down (target 103.158). Expected return is +1.76% with a 10–90% band of 103.158 – 111.8396. How we built these odds: today's setup shows RSI(14) oversold, mixed SMA(20)/SMA(200) alignment, and negative MACD histogram — the model blended same-pattern matches (0%), closest analogs (44%), and recency (56%). The strongest pull came from closest historical matches, which averaged +2.29% over the next 24h, and analog bars leaned positive, giving upside more weight than downside despite the bearish histogram. The heaviest bucket is flat at 63% — that's probability mass, not a guarantee. Audit trail or audit prison.
Vs prior forecast
Prior forecast (2026-08-29-solusdt-alan-mesk) filed yesterday: anchor 103.72 with expected +2.95% and P(up) 44%. Since then, price gained 1.24% to 105.01, staying inside the prior 10–90% band [102.2946, 111.4638] and matching the expected direction. Sign here.
Watchlist note
Watch for RSI(14) to lift out of oversold territory and MACD histogram to cross positive — that would shift the odds toward the upside scenario.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 105.01
MA1 SMA(20): 105.026
MA2 SMA(50): 99.7502
MA3 SMA(200): 81.9586
RSI(14): 29.21
Range high (42 bars): 109.33
Range low (42 bars): 93.66
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 4,539,520.43
Last bar volume: 1,086,886.11
MACD(12,26,9): line +1.625, signal +2.023, hist -0.3978
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 105.026, upper 109.0757, lower 100.9763, %B 49.8
ATR(14): 2.0783 (1.98% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) oversold (below 30); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 105.01
Expected return (24h): +1.76%
What expected return means: +1.76% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 103.158 – 111.8396 (median 105.8632, expected 106.8595)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 30.1% → target 108.5028 (+3.33% 24h)
- Down: 6.6% → target 103.158 (-1.76% 24h)
- Flat: 63.4% → stay within 102.4646 – 107.5554 (±2.42% from anchor; median 105.8632)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) oversold (below 30); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (0%), closest analogs (44%), and recency (56%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from the closest historical matches: on average, the next 24h moved +2.29% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 63% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±2.42% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).