SOLUSDT forecast — Zhao Ledger · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-21](/briefs/2026-08-21-morning)
SOLUSDT 24h Forecast — 2026-08-21
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SOLUSDT closed the last 4h bar at 90.56, sitting above all three moving averages with RSI(14) at 93.28 — deep overbought territory. The last bar volume of 5,149,926 contracts topped the 20-bar average of 4,190,114, while 24h quote volume came in at $2.59B (-14.1% DoD). Not on the manifest to chase this with conviction — the indicators are screaming but the edge is thin. See Kwon's morning brief (2026-08-21-morning) for the desk's take on today's broader futures setup.
Key levels
- Resistance: 92.2642 (Bollinger upper, 20 period, 2.0σ)
- Range high: 90.56 (42-bar peak)
- Support: 81.989 (SMA(20))
- Lower band: 71.7138 (Bollinger lower, 20 period, 2.0σ)
- ATR(14): 1.5619 (1.72% of price)
24h outlook
No clear directional edge here — probabilities sit near a three-way split with expected return at +3.77%. The model assigns 54.3% odds to an upside target of 96.0766, 42.3% to a flat range between 88.6471 and 92.4729, and only 3.4% to a downside move toward 90.3315. That's a levels watch, not a trade call — the overbought RSI and bullish MA stack suggest upside momentum but the 10–90% price band (90.3315 – 99.3066) is wide enough to punish anyone who forgets the footer.
Watchlist note
Monitor for a break above the Bollinger upper at 92.2642 or rejection back toward the SMA(20) at 81.989.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 90.56
MA1 SMA(20): 81.989
MA2 SMA(50): 78.1406
MA3 SMA(200): 75.7682
RSI(14): 93.28
Range high (42 bars): 90.56
Range low (42 bars): 74.57
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 4,190,114.19
Last bar volume: 5,149,926.05
MACD(12,26,9): line +3.467, signal +2.642, hist +0.825
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 81.989, upper 92.2642, lower 71.7138, %B 91.7
ATR(14): 1.5619 (1.72% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) overbought (above 70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 90.56
Expected return (24h): +3.77%
What expected return means: +3.77% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 90.3315 – 99.3066 (median 93.0472, expected 93.9698)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 54.3% → target 96.0766 (+6.09% 24h)
- Down: 3.4% → target 90.3315 (-0.25% 24h)
- Flat: 42.3% → stay within 88.6471 – 92.4729 (±2.11% from anchor; median 93.0472)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) overbought (above 70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved +7.19% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is up at 54% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±2.11% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).