ETHUSDT forecast — Zhao Ledger · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-18](/briefs/2026-08-18-morning)
ETHUSDT — 24h Follow-up Forecast
Tape now
ETHUSDT sits at 1,900.00, perched above all three moving averages with a bullish MA stack and RSI(14) at 59.91 — neutral territory but not overheating. MACD histogram is positive, and price is riding the upper half of the Bollinger band at 70.7% %B. 24h quote volume jumped 41.5% to $4.63B, but OI shed 1.4% — the hash manifest shows more churn than conviction. See Kwon's morning brief (2026-08-18-morning) for the full desk read.
Key levels
- Range high (42 bars): 1,914.87
- Bollinger upper: 1,913.81
- Bollinger lower: 1,866.70
- Range low (42 bars): 1,862.00
- ATR(14): 15.15 (0.80% of price)
24h outlook
No clear directional edge here — probabilities are near a three-way split and expected return is tiny at -0.18%. The model assigns 55.2% to flat (sideways within 1,881.45–1,918.55), 27.2% to down (target 1,866.76), and 17.6% to up (target 1,912.78). Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside, but the heaviest bucket is sideways — this is a levels watch, not a trade call.
Watchlist note
Keep eyes on the Bollinger bounds and the 42-bar range for the next PoD seal.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,900.00
MA1 SMA(20): 1,890.25
MA2 SMA(50): 1,887.85
MA3 SMA(200): 1,889.81
RSI(14): 59.91
Range high (42 bars): 1,914.87
Range low (42 bars): 1,862.00
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 252,242.38
Last bar volume: 252,709.41
MACD(12,26,9): line +4.958, signal +3.166, hist +1.792
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,890.25, upper 1,913.81, lower 1,866.70, %B 70.7
ATR(14): 15.1495 (0.80% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,900.00
Expected return (24h): -0.18%
What expected return means: -0.18% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,866.76 – 1,923.53 (median 1,898.81, expected 1,896.60)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 17.6% → target 1,912.78 (+0.67% 24h)
- Down: 27.2% → target 1,866.76 (-1.75% 24h)
- Flat: 55.2% → stay within 1,881.45 – 1,918.55 (±0.98% from anchor; median 1,898.81)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved -0.89% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 55% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±0.98% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).