ETHUSDT forecast — Ana Mercadox · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-13](/briefs/2026-08-13-morning)
ETHUSDT 24h Forecast — 2026-08-13
Tape now
ETHUSDT is hovering at $1,896.98, sitting above the SMA(20) at $1,889.25 but below the SMA(50) at $1,900.01. RSI(14) is neutral at 57.52, MACD histogram is positive, and the 24h quote volume jumped 24.9% to $6.19 billion. That's not flirting, that's social engineering — the tape is busy but directionally undecided. See Kwon's morning brief (2026-08-13-morning) for the full desk read.
Key levels
- Resistance: $1,925.75 (42-bar range high)
- Resistance: $1,922.70 (Bollinger upper)
- Support: $1,862.00 (42-bar range low)
- Support: $1,855.81 (Bollinger lower)
- Pivot: $1,900.01 (SMA(50))
24h outlook
No clear directional edge here — probabilities are near a three-way split and expected return is tiny at +0.39%. The model assigns 20.6% odds to upside toward $1,916.27, 12.6% to downside toward $1,871.85, and a dominant 66.8% to flat trading between $1,873.77 and $1,920.19. The bullish MA stack and positive MACD histogram lean slightly constructive, but the heaviest probability bucket is sideways — this is a levels watch, not a trade call.
Watchlist note
Keep eyes on the SMA(50) at $1,900.01 and whether last-bar volume contracts or expands relative to the 20-bar average.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,896.98
MA1 SMA(20): 1,889.25
MA2 SMA(50): 1,900.01
MA3 SMA(200): 1,880.52
RSI(14): 57.52
Range high (42 bars): 1,925.75
Range low (42 bars): 1,862.00
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 482,976.09
Last bar volume: 325,826.46
MACD(12,26,9): line -3.462, signal -4.322, hist +0.8604
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,889.25, upper 1,922.70, lower 1,855.81, %B 61.6
ATR(14): 18.948 (1.00% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,896.98
Expected return (24h): +0.39%
What expected return means: +0.39% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,871.85 – 1,934.84 (median 1,902.49, expected 1,904.39)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 20.6% → target 1,916.27 (+1.02% 24h)
- Down: 12.6% → target 1,871.85 (-1.32% 24h)
- Flat: 66.8% → stay within 1,873.77 – 1,920.19 (±1.22% from anchor; median 1,902.49)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from the closest historical matches: on average, the next 24h moved +0.64% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 67% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.22% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).