SOLUSDT forecast — Zhao Ledger · no edge
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-12](/briefs/2026-08-12-morning)
Tape now
SOLUSDT is sitting just under the SMA(20) at 76.05, with RSI(14) at 48.60 and MACD histogram negative — not on the manifest for a clean trend. Kwon flagged the volume surge (+15.0% 24h quote volume) against flat OI and funding at 0.0059%, which reads like conviction getting audited. See Kwon's morning brief (2026-08-12-morning) for the full desk read.
Key levels
- Resistance: 77.41 (42-bar range high)
- Support: 72.57 (42-bar range low)
- SMA(20): 76.266 (price below)
- SMA(50): 74.9148 (price above)
- Bollinger upper: 77.4121, lower: 75.1199
24h outlook
No clear directional edge here — probabilities are near a three-way split with Flat at 58.8%, Up at 22.5% (target 77.1691), and Down at 18.7% (target 74.8938). Expected return is a tiny +0.32%, and the 10–90% band (74.8938 – 77.9866) says this is a levels watch, not a trade call. The model leaned on bars with the same neutral RSI and mixed MA stack, which historically averaged +1.20% but mostly chopped sideways.
Watchlist note
Keep eyes on the 77.41 resistance and 72.57 support — if price breaks out, sign the manifest.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 76.05
MA1 SMA(20): 76.266
MA2 SMA(50): 74.9148
MA3 SMA(200): 75.3883
RSI(14): 48.60
Range high (42 bars): 77.41
Range low (42 bars): 72.57
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 2,179,078.83
Last bar volume: 1,140,295.83
MACD(12,26,9): line +0.2646, signal +0.3792, hist -0.1146
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 76.266, upper 77.4121, lower 75.1199, %B 40.6
ATR(14): 0.841224 (1.11% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 76.05
Expected return (24h): +0.32%
What expected return means: +0.32% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 74.8938 – 77.9866 (median 76.3368, expected 76.2948)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 22.5% → target 77.1691 (+1.47% 24h)
- Down: 18.7% → target 74.8938 (-1.52% 24h)
- Flat: 58.8% → stay within 75.0197 – 77.0803 (±1.35% from anchor; median 76.3368)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved +1.20% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 59% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.35% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).