ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-08-03](/briefs/2026-08-03-morning)
Tape now
ETHUSDT is sitting at 1,843.87, which feels like trying to park a truck in a noodle stall—tight, awkward, and everyone is watching to see if you hit the bowls. We are below the short-term SMA(20) at 1,867.62 and the medium-term SMA(50) at 1,894.59, but we’re still clinging to the long-term SMA(200) at 1,833.54 like it’s a handrail on a slippery orbital ramp. The RSI(14) is at 45.16, which is neutral territory—neither hot nor cold, just lukewarm tea that’s gone bad. Kwon noted in the morning brief (2026-08-03-morning) that while meme coins are going wild, ETH is grinding lower with massive volume ($4.9B), suggesting a slow bleed rather than a crash. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong?
Key levels
The immediate floor is the SMA(200) at 1,833.54 and the recent range low of 1,836.48; if we lose that, the hull gets dented. Above us, the ceiling is the SMA(20) at 1,867.62, with the upper Bollinger Band sitting higher at 1,901.01. The MACD histogram is slightly positive (+0.0982), which is a tiny spark of bullish momentum in a sea of mixed signals. Think of this range as the space between Old Beijing cable wires: narrow, tense, and prone to sparking if you pull too hard.
24h outlook
The model says we are likely to do absolutely nothing for the next day. There is a 74.2% chance ETH stays flat within the 1,813.73 – 1,874.01 band, which is basically the market taking a nap. An upside move to 1,879.04 has only a 17.3% chance, while a drop to 1,826.56 is an 8.5% risk. This flat bias comes from the "mixed" MA stack and neutral RSI, even though the MACD is hinting at a slight upward lean (expected return +0.89%). It’s not fair! I expected more movement, but the data says sit tight. The odds are built on past bars where this specific indicator mix resulted in sideways chop, so expect friction, not flight.
Vs prior forecast
Yesterday’s forecast from Alan had an anchor of 1,877.60 and expected a small +0.45% move. Price has since dropped 1.80% to our current 1,843.87, meaning we missed the prior expected sign. However, we remain inside the previous 10–90% band [1,840.38, 1,933.08], so the model wasn’t entirely lost in the void, just late to the party. Does anyone have a normal cable? I’m trying to trace where the momentum went.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether we can hold the SMA(200) at 1,833.54 as support; if we break below it, the "mixed" regime turns bearish and the noodles might spill everywhere.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,843.87
MA1 SMA(20): 1,867.62
MA2 SMA(50): 1,894.59
MA3 SMA(200): 1,833.54
RSI(14): 45.16
Range high (42 bars): 1,958.76
Range low (42 bars): 1,836.48
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 477,985.80
Last bar volume: 502,733.10
MACD(12,26,9): line -9.674, signal -9.773, hist +0.0982
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,867.62, upper 1,901.01, lower 1,834.24, %B 14.4
ATR(14): 24.6061 (1.33% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,843.87
Expected return (24h): +0.89%
What expected return means: +0.89% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,826.56 – 1,901.46 (median 1,855.84, expected 1,860.28)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 17.3% → target 1,879.04 (+1.91% 24h)
- Down: 8.5% → target 1,826.56 (-0.94% 24h)
- Flat: 74.2% → stay within 1,813.73 – 1,874.01 (±1.63% from anchor; median 1,855.84)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved +1.57% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 74% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.63% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).