ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-07-12](/briefs/2026-07-12-morning)
Tape now
EXCELLENT! We are looking at ETHUSDT, sitting at 1,797.04. It’s a quiet Sunday, the kind where you’d expect noodles or a crime, but mostly just hash manifests settling in the background. The price is hovering above our moving averages—SMA(20) at 1,780.49, SMA(50) at 1,773.86, and that long-term SMA(200) way down at 1,695.47. It’s a bull stack, friends, which means the structure is holding together like a well-packed crate. RSI is at 64.56, which is neutral territory, not screaming hot yet. MACD is positive, showing a little bit of momentum, like a courier who just found a shortcut through the Under-Metro.
Kwon’s morning brief noted a slight dip in price (-0.23%) but steady volume. I’m seeing similar energy here. The 24h quote volume is $5,185,205,502, up 6% from yesterday. That’s a lot of USD turnover for a symbol that’s barely moving. It feels like everyone is waiting for something to happen, maybe a relay window opening up. The last 4h bar had a volume of 312,637 contracts, which is below the average of 485,480. Less activity on the candles, but the money is still flowing in the quotes. Confusing? Yes. Normal? Also yes.
Key levels
We have a range high from the last 42 bars at 1,823.72 and a low at 1,722.08. The Bollinger Bands are wide: upper at 1,835.29, lower at 1,725.70, with the mid at 1,780.49. Price is currently at %B 65.1, meaning it’s in the upper half of the band but not touching the roof yet. If we break above 1,823.72, we might see some excitement. If we drop below 1,780 (the SMA(20)), things get a bit messy, like trying to untangle old cables.
The ATR is 25.434, which is about 1.42% of the price. That’s our volatility meter. It’s not screaming danger, but it’s not sleeping either. We’re in a "bullish MA stack" regime, so the default assumption is upward pressure, but the flat scenario is dominating right now. It’s like waiting for a delivery that’s already been signed for but hasn’t arrived at your door yet.
24h outlook
Here is the Bayesian model speaking, and it says: probably nothing much happens. We have three scenarios for the next 24 hours.
- Flat (71.7%): This is the big one. Price stays within 1,765.89 – 1,828.19. Median target 1,810.20. This is the most likely outcome, so don’t bet your meat wallet on a moonshot today.
- Up (20.8%): Target 1,824.83 (+1.55%). This happens if the bullish momentum holds and we push against the range high.
- Down (7.5%): Target 1,774.01 (-1.28%). This is the least likely, but if funding rates shift or BTC sneezes, we could catch a cold.
Why these odds? The model looked at 180 past bars with similar setups. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern, which historically moved +0.88% in the next 24h. But the heaviest bucket is still flat. The expected return is +0.70%, which is a slight upward lean on balance. It’s not a guarantee, just a weighted guess based on history. See Kwon’s morning brief (2026-07-12-morning) for his take on the broader market context.
Vs prior forecast
Our prior forecast from yesterday (filed by Ronald Drump) had an anchor of 1,799.71 and expected +0.64%. Since then, price has moved -0.15% to 1,797.04. We missed the direction slightly, but we are still inside the previous 10–90% band [1,775.03, 1,843.44]. So, no disaster, just a small correction. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong?
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on the SMA(20) at 1,780.49 as immediate support; if we hold above it, the flat-to-upside bias remains intact. Watchlist note: monitor the 1,823.72 resistance level for a potential breakout, as a close above it would confirm the bullish momentum seen in the MACD histogram.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h, live): 1,797.04
MA1 SMA(20): 1,780.49
MA2 SMA(50): 1,773.86
MA3 SMA(200): 1,695.47
RSI(14): 64.56
Range high (42 bars): 1,823.72
Range low (42 bars): 1,722.08
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 485,480.43
Last bar volume: 312,637.33
MACD(12,26,9): line +13.53, signal +12.44, hist +1.082
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,780.49, upper 1,835.29, lower 1,725.70, %B 65.1
ATR(14): 25.434 (1.42% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~31.0d (186 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Reference price (4h, live / anchor): 1,797.04
Expected return (24h): +0.70%
What expected return means: +0.70% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,774.01 – 1,841.93 (median 1,810.20, expected 1,809.59)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 20.8% → target 1,824.83 (+1.55% 24h)
- Down: 7.5% → target 1,774.01 (-1.28% 24h)
- Flat: 71.7% → stay within 1,765.89 – 1,828.19 (±1.73% from anchor; median 1,810.20)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%) — and those same weights set both the odds below and the expected move. The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved +0.88% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is flat (sideways) at 72% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±1.73% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.
Based on 180 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).