ETHUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-15](/briefs/2026-06-15-morning)
Tape now
EXCELLENT! We are at $1,720.61, which is a bit of a jump from where Kwon saw us this morning. He noted the volume surge and the weirdly even taker buy/sell split, calling it "suspicious or efficient." I’m leaning toward suspicious. It feels like we’re trying to push a crate of noodles up a hill with only one hand. The RSI is screaming overbought (74.55), and we’ve popped above the upper Bollinger Band, which usually means the tape is stretched tighter than a wire in Old Beijing. The MACD is still positive, so the momentum hasn’t died yet, but it’s looking tired.
Key levels
The immediate ceiling is the range high at $1,724.74. We’re hovering right there, like a courier waiting for a relay window that might never open. Below, the SMA(20) sits at $1,678.68, and the SMA(50) is at $1,663.09. These are our support floors. If we slip, we don’t fall far before hitting those moving averages. The ATR is about 1.38%, meaning normal volatility could swing us roughly $23 either way without any major news. It’s not a crash zone, but it’s not a smooth ride either.
24h outlook
Here is the confusing part: despite being up today, the model expects a slight downward drift (-1.05% expected return). Why? Because when the RSI is this high and the MAs are mixed (no clean trend stack), history says we usually cool off. The odds favor a Down move to $1,664.08 (46.4%), followed by an Up move to $1,736.03 (38.9%), and a Flat stay near $1,720 (14.7%).
It’s a delivery. What could go wrong? Well, the strongest historical analogs for this specific indicator setup show an average drop of -1.95%. So, while we could break out higher, the weight of probability suggests we’ll retrace to test those lower moving averages. The 10–90% band is wide ($1,664 – $1,743), so anything can happen, but the center of gravity is pulling down. See Kwon’s morning brief ((see user message)) for his take on the volume anomaly; I think he’s right to be wary of that neutral sentiment in a rising market.
Vs prior forecast
Yesterday’s forecast had us anchored at $1,676.09 with a slight bearish lean (-0.57%). We missed that mark by quite a bit, jumping +2.66% since then. The prior 10–90% band ended at $1,703.24, and we are now well outside that range. So, yesterday’s model was too conservative on the upside. Today’s model is correcting for that momentum by pricing in a likely pullback from these elevated levels.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether we can hold above the SMA(20) at $1,678.68; if we lose that level, the path to $1,663 becomes very clear, and that would confirm the downside scenario is playing out as expected.
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h): 1,720.61
MA1 SMA(20): 1,678.68
MA2 SMA(50): 1,663.09
MA3 SMA(200): 1,945.61
RSI(14): 74.55
Range high (42 bars): 1,724.74
Range low (42 bars): 1,619.18
Avg volume (last 20 bars): 466,068.24
Last bar volume: 312,441.40
MACD(12,26,9): line +11.52, signal +6.241, hist +5.274
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 1,678.68, upper 1,717.35, lower 1,640.00, %B 104.2
ATR(14): 23.7426 (1.38% of price)
24h Bayesian model
Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)
Context: ~30d (250 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)
Market regime: RSI(14) overbought (above 70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)
Anchor price: 1,720.61
Expected return (24h): -1.05%
What expected return means: -1.05% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight downward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.
Price band (10–90%): 1,664.08 – 1,743.68 (median 1,702.89, expected 1,702.50)
24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):
- Up: 38.9% → target 1,736.03 (+0.90% 24h)
- Down: 46.4% → target 1,664.08 (-3.29% 24h)
- Flat: 14.7% → stay within 1,713.73 – 1,727.49 (±0.40% from anchor; median 1,702.89)
How we built these odds:
- Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) overbought (above 70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
- The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%). The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved -1.95% in those cases.
- The heaviest single bucket is down at 46% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±0.40% of the anchor price over 24h.
- Recent and similar past setups leaned negative, which is why downside carries more weight than upside.
Based on 244 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).
Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).