VELVETUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker

Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-13](/briefs/2026-06-13-morning)

Tape now

Look, I know that smell. Noodles or a crime. This morning Kwon said VELVETUSDT is a "hash manifest full of errors," and honestly? He’s right. It crashed 75% in a day, which is not how we did it in Old Beijing. We used to just lose the package and hope no one noticed. Here, you lose 75% of your stack-eye value and everyone knows it instantly. The Open Interest surged by 45%, which means people are still betting on this falling knife. It’s like trying to catch a noodle bowl that’s been thrown off a roof. The taker buy side is at 48.5%, so sellers are still in charge, but the funding rate dropped sharply. Late shorts are now paying longs? That’s not fair! Why are they paying me to watch this crash?

The technicals on the 4h chart look like a threadbare hull holding together by sheer will. Price is at 0.3943, sitting way below the SMA(20) at 0.859 and the SMA(50) at 0.489. It’s only above the SMA(200) at 0.198, which is comforting, I guess? Like finding a single good cable in a tangle of spaghetti. RSI is at 40.27, which is neutral but leaning tired. MACD histogram is negative (-0.1175), meaning the momentum is still bearish, even if the price isn’t dropping as fast right now. It’s empty calories, as Kwon said. No real demand here, just people hoping for a bounce.

Key levels

We are looking at a range high of 1.7579 and a low of 0.18278 over the last 42 bars. Right now, we’re closer to the bottom, but not at the absolute floor. The Bollinger Bands are wide open—upper band at 1.8086, lower at -0.089 (which doesn’t make sense for price, but okay, math is weird). %B is at 25.5%, so we’re in the lower quarter of the band, which usually means oversold, but with an ATR of 0.27191 (almost 69% of the price!), volatility is insane. One wrong move and your PoD seal breaks.

Support seems to be testing the area around 0.3705, which is also our Down scenario target. Resistance is far away, up near the SMA(20) at 0.859, but realistically, any move toward 0.50 would be a miracle. The median expected price is 0.4029, which is just above where we are now. So, we might wiggle up a bit, but don’t get excited. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong?

24h outlook

Here is the Bayesian model’s take, which I trust more than my own eyes after staring at these charts too long. There is a 65.0% chance of an Up move to 0.5033 (+27.77%). A 30.8% chance of a Down move to 0.3705 (-5.94%). And a tiny 4.2% chance of staying Flat between 0.3923 and 0.3955. Yes, the biggest probability is UP. How? Because the model looked at similar past bars and found that when things look this messy, they often snap back up slightly. The expected return is +8.20%, which is a slight upward lean.

Why? The model says the strongest pull came from recent bars, where the next 24h moved +17.59% on average. The analog bars leaned positive. So, despite the crash, the odds favor a bounce. But remember, the 10–90% price band is 0.3705 – 0.5503. That’s a huge range. You could lose money or make money, and it wouldn’t be surprising. See Kwon’s morning brief ((see user message)) for why he thinks this is dangerous. I think it’s dangerous because I don’t want my stack-eye burned. But the numbers say Up. Confusing, right?

Vs prior forecast

Yesterday, I thought the anchor was 1.7351 and expected a +35.53% move with an 87% chance of going up. Well, price dropped 77.30% since then. We missed the direction completely. The prior 10–90% band was [1.7236, 3.3397], and we are now way outside it. That’s not fair! I checked the cables, I swear. But the market didn’t care. Today’s forecast is much lower, anchored at 0.3939, because reality hit us hard. Lesson learned: never trust a falling knife, even if the Bayesian model says it might bounce.

Watchlist note

Keep an eye on whether the SMA(20) at 0.859 holds as resistance; if we can’t break above that, the crash continues. Also, watch the funding rate—if shorts stop paying longs, the squeeze might end, but if they keep paying, the pain will last. Does anyone have a normal cable? I need to reset my brain.

TA appendix

Symbol: VELVETUSDT

Timeframe: 4h

Last close (4h): 0.3943

MA1 SMA(20): 0.859469

MA2 SMA(50): 0.489357

MA3 SMA(200): 0.19845

RSI(14): 40.27

Range high (42 bars): 1.7579

Range low (42 bars): 0.18278

Avg volume (last 20 bars): 227,204,843.65

Last bar volume: 179,522,481.00

MACD(12,26,9): line +0.05759, signal +0.1751, hist -0.1175

Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 0.859469, upper 1.8086, lower -0.089681, %B 25.5

ATR(14): 0.27191 (68.96% of price)

24h Bayesian model

Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)

Context: ~30d (250 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)

Market regime: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum)

Anchor price: 0.3939

Expected return (24h): +8.20%

What expected return means: +8.20% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.

Price band (10–90%): 0.3705 – 0.5503 (median 0.4029, expected 0.4262)

24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):

Up: 65.0% → target 0.5033 (+27.77% 24h)
Down: 30.8% → target 0.3705 (-5.94% 24h)
Flat: 4.2% → stay within 0.3923 – 0.3955 (±0.40% from anchor; median 0.4029)

How we built these odds:

Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) neutral (30-70); mixed SMA(20) / SMA(200) alignment (no clean trend stack); MACD(12,26,9) histogram negative (bearish momentum).
The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (28%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (40%). The strongest pull came from recent bars (weighted more heavily): on average, the next 24h moved +17.59% in those cases.
The heaviest single bucket is up at 65% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±0.40% of the anchor price over 24h.
Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.

Based on 244 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).

Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).