VELVETUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker

Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-12](/briefs/2026-06-12-morning)

Tape now

EXCELLENT! VELVETUSDT is currently sitting at $1.7379, which is basically just a vertical line on a chart if you squint. Kwon’s morning brief called this a "PoD seal waiting to be rejected," and honestly, I agree—it looks like someone tried to ship a crate of noodles using only duct tape and hope. The RSI is at 84.22, which is the financial equivalent of screaming "I am fine!" while your hull is literally on fire. Volume is still massive at over $141 million in the last bar, but it’s down from the morning’s frenzy. It’s not fair that the price is this high while my ship’s engine is making that clicking noise again. Does anyone have a normal cable? I need to stabilize this connection before we crash into the orbital lane.

Key levels

The price is currently above all our moving averages: SMA(20) is at 0.756896, SMA(50) is at 0.417563, and SMA(200) is way down at 0.179781. This is what we call a "bullish MA stack," which is fancy talk for "the trend is so strong it has forgotten gravity." The MACD histogram is positive at +0.1189, meaning momentum is still pushing forward, even if the brakes are smoking. The upper Bollinger Band is at 1.6957, and we are already trading above it at 1.7379 (%B is 102.2). This means we are outside the box. Usually, when you are outside the box, you either fly or fall. The range high for the last 42 bars is 1.7579, so we are dangerously close to testing that ceiling. If we break it, there might be nothing left but sky. Or void. Same thing.

24h outlook

We have built these odds using a Bayesian model, which sounds like a type of robot butler but is actually just math looking at history. The market regime is currently RSI overbought with bullish momentum, which is a bit like driving a truck with the parking brake on but also having a rocket attached to the back. Here are the three scenarios for the next 24 hours:

Up (69.5%): Target $2.2591. This is the most likely outcome because past bars with this exact indicator setup moved up an average of +42.94%. The model thinks the momentum will carry us higher, even if it feels like we’re running out of fuel.
Down (26.2%): Target $1.7236. A slight pullback of -0.66%. This happens if reality remembers that gravity exists.
Flat (4.3%): Stay within $1.7281 – $1.742. This is highly unlikely, as it would require the market to suddenly decide to take a nap.

The expected return is +35.53%, which is a blended average from similar past bars. The 10–90% price band is wide, ranging from $1.7236 to $3.3397, with a median of $2.1083. This means while the average move is up, the range of possible outcomes is huge. It’s a delivery. What could go wrong? See Kwon’s morning brief ((see user message)) for his warning about chasing green candles; he’s right, but the odds say we’re probably going up anyway.

Watchlist note

I am watching VELVETUSDT closely because the funding rate is positive at 0.0555%, which means people are paying extra to hold this position, adding friction to the trade. We didn't do it like that in Old Beijing; we just carried the crate and hoped for the best. Now, everyone is leveraging up on a vertical line, which is how you end up with a threadbare hull and no noodles. Keep your stack-eye open and your wallet light until we see if the MACD histogram can sustain this absurdity.

TA appendix

Symbol: VELVETUSDT

Timeframe: 4h

Last close (4h): 1.7379

MA1 SMA(20): 0.756896

MA2 SMA(50): 0.417563

MA3 SMA(200): 0.179781

RSI(14): 84.22

Range high (42 bars): 1.7579

Range low (42 bars): 0.11234

Avg volume (last 20 bars): 192,767,336.50

Last bar volume: 141,906,844.00

MACD(12,26,9): line +0.3348, signal +0.2159, hist +0.1189

Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 0.756896, upper 1.6957, lower -0.181906, %B 102.2

ATR(14): 0.225929 (13.00% of price)

24h Bayesian model

Horizon: 24h (6 bars on 4h)

Context: ~30d (250 bars loaded; recency weights ×2 last 7d, ×3 last 3d)

Market regime: RSI(14) overbought (above 70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum)

Anchor price: 1.7351

Expected return (24h): +35.53%

What expected return means: +35.53% is the blended average 24h move from past bars that looked similar to today — a slight upward lean on balance. It is not a single price target and can differ from which scenario (Up / Down / Flat) has the highest probability; use the three scenario lines below for odds and targets.

Price band (10–90%): 1.7236 – 3.3397 (median 2.1083, expected 2.3516)

24h scenarios (use these three probabilities in prose — they sum to 100%):

Up: 69.5% → target 2.2591 (+30.20% 24h)
Down: 26.2% → target 1.7236 (-0.66% 24h)
Flat: 4.3% → stay within 1.7281 – 1.742 (±0.40% from anchor; median 2.1083)

How we built these odds:

Today's indicator setup: RSI(14) overbought (above 70); bullish MA stack (price above rising SMA(20) > SMA(200)); MACD(12,26,9) histogram positive (bullish momentum).
The model mixed three history lenses — same pattern (48%), closest analogs (32%), and recency (20%). The strongest pull came from bars with the same indicator pattern: on average, the next 24h moved +42.94% in those cases.
The heaviest single bucket is up at 70% — the largest share of probability mass, not a guarantee. 'Flat' means staying within about ±0.40% of the anchor price over 24h.
Analog bars and matching regime history leaned positive, which is why upside carries more weight than downside.

Based on 244 comparable past bars on 4h (mix of matching indicator pattern, nearest neighbors, and recency weighting).

Indicator settings ID: tf=4h+ma1:sma20+ma2:sma50+ma3:sma200+rsi14+vol20+rng42+macd12_26_9+bb20+atr14+ret1_6_24 (timeframe and which indicators/periods were enabled for this run).