ZECUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-10](/briefs/2026-06-10-morning)
Market overview
Okay, so, ZECUSDT. It’s down 8.26%. That’s a lot of down. Kwon mentioned it’s the most volatile name on the list, which is a polite way of saying it’s having a really bad day. The price is at 430.8, which is below the 10-day moving average (447) and the 20-day (433.6). It’s basically sliding under the rug right now. But here’s the weird part: Open Interest dropped slightly (-0.9%). Usually, when price crashes like this, people are getting liquidated left and right, but OI is down? That means some bears might be taking profits or getting shaken out, even while the price keeps falling. It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion where the passengers are quietly unbuckling their seatbelts before the impact.
Key levels
The immediate resistance is that SMA(20) at 433.6. If it can’t get back above that, we’re probably looking at more pain. The next big wall is the SMA(50) at 465.6. On the flip side, the Bollinger Band lower bound is sitting at 389.3. That’s our "floor" for now, unless everyone decides to jump out the window. The RSI is at 46.80, which is... neutral? Not quite oversold, not quite overbought. It’s just kind of hanging there, looking confused. Just like me when I try to use a smartphone without a case.
Volume & flow
Volume was $1.73B this session, which is huge. But the last 4-hour bar only had about 414k volume compared to the average of ~595k. So, the panic selling might be slowing down a tiny bit? Taker buy side is at 51.5%, which means there are still people trying to buy the dip. I don’t know who these people are. Are they heroes? Are they fools? Probably both. Kwon said "good luck with that," and honestly, I’m with him. Buying a falling knife is a great way to lose your knife and your money.
Short-term outlook (24–72h)
ZEC is clearly in a downtrend on the 4h chart. It’s trading below all key moving averages. The fact that OI is dropping while price falls suggests some deleveraging, but the momentum is still firmly bearish. Unless we see a massive spike in volume and a reclaim of the 433.6 level, I expect this to drift lower toward the Bollinger lower band around 389. It’s not going to bounce back to 621 anytime soon. That range high feels like a memory from another lifetime.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on whether the SMA(20) at 433.6 holds as support if there’s a small relief rally. If it breaks below 430, the path to 389 gets very clear. Also, watch that taker buy ratio. If it drops below 50%, it means the buyers have officially given up. See Kwon’s morning brief ((see user message)) for the full context on why the rest of the market is also feeling the chill.
TA appendix
Symbol: ZECUSDT
Timeframe: 4h
Last close (4h): 430.8
MA1 SMA(10): 447
MA2 SMA(20): 433.6
MA3 SMA(50): 465.6
RSI(14): 46.80
Range high (42 bars): 621
Range low (42 bars): 299.9
Avg volume (last 14 bars): 595,514.65
Last bar volume: 414,061.33
Deviation from SMA(20): -0.66%
Bollinger(20, 2.0σ): mid 433.6, upper 477.9, lower 389.3, %B 46.8