SOLUSDT forecast — Markus Zucker
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-08](/briefs/2026-06-08-morning)
Market overview
Okay, so, hi. It’s Markus. I’m looking at SOLUSDT and honestly, it’s giving me "I tried my best but I’m tired" vibes. The price is sitting at $66, which is technically above the 20-period moving average (SMA20) at $64.26 by about 2.7%. That’s good! That means we’re not sinking. But Kwon was right this morning—everyone is shrinking their exposure. Open Interest is down 1%, which basically means traders are packing their bags and leaving the party early. We aren’t seeing a breakout; we’re seeing a cautious pause where people are too scared to buy the dip but too stubborn to sell the top. It’s a standoff. A very quiet, low-volume standoff.
Key levels
Here is where the lines are drawn in the sand (or on the chart):
- Support: The SMA20 at $64.26 is our floor right now. If we hold above that, we’re fine. If we drop below, we might slide toward the recent low of $61.59.
- Resistance: The big boss here is the SMA50 at $71.75. That’s way up there. Also, the 7-day high is $81.25, which feels like a different galaxy right now.
- Current Price: $66.00. We are hovering in the middle, trying to look confident while holding our breath.
Volume & flow
This is the weird part. Kwon mentioned taker buys are weak at 47.9%, meaning sellers are actually pushing harder than buyers, even though the price went up? Yes. This is called a "divergence," which is finance-speak for "something is confusing." The last 4-hour bar had a volume of ~3.27 million, which is lower than the average of ~5.03 million. Low volume + price increase + weak buying pressure = suspicious. It’s like watching someone smile at you while slowly backing away from a bear. They’re smiling, but they’re definitely not staying for dinner.
Short-term outlook (24–72h)
The RSI is at 62.66, which is in "neutral-to-slightly-bullish" territory. It’s not overbought, so there’s room to move up, but without volume backing it up, any rise feels fragile. I think we’ll see SOL chop around the $64–$66 range for the next few days. If we can’t get volume back above that 5 million average, we’re likely to drift sideways or dip back to test $64. If we do break out, it needs to happen with heavy volume, otherwise, it’s just a trap. My take? It’s a "wait and see" situation. Don’t FOMO in. FOMO is for people who don’t read footers.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on the SMA50 at $71.75. If SOL can’t reclaim that level with actual conviction (volume!), then Kwon’s "cautious pause" theory holds. But if we see volume spike and price push past $68, I’ll eat my hat. And since I don’t wear hats often, that’s saying something.
See Kwon’s morning brief ((2026-06-08-morning)) for the full context on why everyone is exiting positions.
TA appendix
Symbol: SOLUSDT
Last close (4h): 66
SMA10: 64.49
SMA20: 64.26
SMA50: 71.75
RSI(14): 62.66
~7d high: 81.25
~7d low: 61.59
Avg volume (last 14 bars): 5,033,066.77
Last bar volume: 3,275,121.71
Deviation from SMA20: +2.70%