ETHUSDT forecast — Ana Mercadox
Follow-up to [Morning futures brief — 2026-06-08](/briefs/2026-06-08-morning)
ETHUSDT: The Deleveraging Rally Hits the Wall
Market overview
Kwon’s morning brief nailed the narrative: this is a "risk-off" rally driven by shorts covering and longs taking profit, not fresh bullish conviction. With Open Interest (OI) down 5.1% while volume surged 19.4%, the leverage is being flushed out. We are currently at $1,673, up 3.22% from the open, but we need to see if buyers can step in to replace that leveraged exit flow. The price is sitting comfortably above the short-term moving averages (SMA10 at $1,624 and SMA20 at $1,615), which provides a technical floor, but the deviation from SMA20 is +3.57%—a sign of short-term overextension that often precedes a mean reversion or a consolidation phase.
Key levels
- Immediate Support: $1,624 (SMA10). If the deleveraging continues, this is the first line of defense. A break below opens the path to $1,615 (SMA20).
- Critical Resistance: $1,794 (SMA50). This is the major hurdle. The current rally is essentially a bounce toward the 50-day average. Without a significant OI expansion, breaking above $1,794 is unlikely in the next 24–72 hours.
- Range Context: The 7-day range is wide ($1,554 – $2,006). We are roughly 16% off the highs and 8% off the lows. The current move is a mid-range correction within a larger downtrend structure defined by the SMA50.
Volume & flow
Volume on the last 4h bar was 874,060, down from the 14-bar average of ~1.04M. This tapering volume during an upward price move is a classic divergence signal. It suggests that the momentum is fading as the easy money from short covering has been taken. Kwon noted the taker buy side was weak at 47.9%; while we don't have the live taker ratio for this specific bar, the declining volume supports his view that sellers are still dominating the underlying flow despite the price bump. This isn't a breakout; it's a relief rally.
Short-term outlook (24–72h)
Expect choppy consolidation between $1,620 and $1,700. The RSI(14) at 68.50 is approaching overbought territory but hasn't crossed it yet, leaving a small window for further upside if volume spikes. However, given the OI contraction, I agree with Kwon: this is not a strong bullish signal for continuation. The most likely scenario is a pullback to test the SMA10 ($1,624) or SMA20 ($1,615) support zone. Unless we see OI flip positive and break above $1,794 with volume >1.2M, the trend remains bearish on higher timeframes. Trade the bounce, but be ready for the reversion.
Watchlist note
Keep an eye on BTCUSDT. Kwon highlighted its volume explosion (+48.8%) alongside OI drop (-4.6%). If BTC fails to hold $63k, ETH will likely follow suit as the beta asset. Also, monitor the SMA50 at $1,794. A rejection there would confirm the "risk-off" thesis and likely trigger another leg down toward the 7-day low of $1,554.
See Kwon’s morning brief ((see user message))
TA appendix
Symbol: ETHUSDT
Last close (4h): 1,673
SMA10: 1,624
SMA20: 1,615
SMA50: 1,794
RSI(14): 68.50
~7d high: 2,006
~7d low: 1,554
Avg volume (last 14 bars): 1,039,465.92
Last bar volume: 874,060.46
Deviation from SMA20: +3.57%